Categories: Climate Change

EL Nino effect in 2019: 75-80% chances

Thanks to the El Nino event that added to the humans caused carbon emissions and made 2016 the hottest year so far. Another El Nino event is predicted to occur between 2018 December and 2019February but the effect is not expected to be as severe as the previous one.

El Niño Conditions

These El Nino events which occur naturally once in every few years have high impacts on the weather worldwide, causing floods in drier regions of South America to droughts in damper parts of Australia. These events that stem from unusually high temperatures of the oceans are responsible for major coral reef bleaching.

The effect of El Nino may not be aspowerful as that of the El Nino of 2015-2016, but it is expected to definitelyhave an impact on the rainfall pattern and temperatures of many places. It could have a significant impact on the agriculture, water resources, food security and health of the public in addition to boosting the global temperature.

In the US, the El Nino has already been forecasted and so in Australia where a hot, dry summer with risk of bushfires,heatwaves is predicted. Evidences also show El Nino effects becoming severeowing to climatic changes.

The heat boost up from El Nino in 2016,made it the hottest year so far followed by 2017 a close second hottest even without an El Nino. With so many climate-related disasters worldwide, 2018 isexpected to be the fourth hottest.

Since 1850, 18 hottest years have been recorded and 17 of them that occurred between 2000 and 2017were caused due to global warming caused by humans. Scientific studies have shown the climatic a tremendous have augmented the severity of many weather events.

With global emissions increasing at atremendous pace and greenhouse gases at record high and all these resulting in stronger heat effect, what needs to be seen is if 2019 El Nino effect is goingto set a new record or not.

A 75-80% chance of full El Nino between2018 December and 2019 February with a 60% continuation chance to 2019 April isestimated from WMO analysis. 0.8C to 1.2C more than average rise in westernPacific sea surface temperatures are predicted currently while with Strong El Nino, it could reach at least 1.5C above average.

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